Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
